Kornelius Raeth 1 Nicole Ludwig 1 2 Abstractscoring rules distribute the training gradient in proportion to Sample-based generative models are increasingly data density, with no awareness of the decision maker's cost structure. The model's limited capacity is allocated globused for probabilistic forecasting in high-stakes ally, leaving decision-critical regions of the output space decision settings, yet their training objectives are potentially underserved. These models are commonly trained with strictly proper Given a forecast, a decision maker with cost function c(a,y), scoring rules, such as the energy score, which al-of action aand outcome y, selects the action that minimises locate their training signal in proportion to dataexpected cost under the forecast distribution; a point forecast density, with no awareness of where forecast eris insufficient to evaluate this expectation. A good forecast rors are most costly for downstream decisions. Crucially, the energy score objective with a differentiable deci-observed cost of the optimal action is itself a proper scoring sion loss that directly penalises the cost incurredrule (Hartline et al., 2025; Kleinberg et al., 2023), placing by acting on the model's forecast. This combinedit in the same family as the energy score which licenses loss is theoretically grounded, as the decision losstheir combination as a theoretically well-founded training is itself a proper scoring rule. Introduction score acts as that anchor, preventing the model from collapsing outside cost-sensitive regions. Our method is theo-tion based on a temperature forecast, balancing asset loss against the cost of intervention. In the weather domain, retically grounded and leads to better downstream decisions state-of-the-art forecasting systems (Lang et al., 2024; Pricewhile retaining full probabilistic forecasts, as validated on et al., 2023) are trained with strictly proper scoring rulessynthetic and real-world forecasting tasks. A gradient analysis showing which regions benefitscore reduces to the continuous ranked probability score from the decision loss and why, based on the cost (CRPS), widely used in meteorological forecast verificafunction structure. Both model classes introduced above are commonly trained by minimising strictly proper sion calibration.

We study the problem of no-regret learning algorithms for general monotone and smooth games and their last-iterate convergence properties. Specifically, we investigate the problem under bandit feedback and strongly uncoupled dynamics, which allows modular development of the multi-player system that applies to a wide range of real applications. We propose a mirror-descent-based algorithm, which converges in O(T 1/4)under Bregman divergence and is also no-regret, where the choice of Bregman divergence is determined by the convexity of the game. The result is achieved by the dedicated use of two regularizations and the analysis of the fixed point thereof. The convergence rate is further improved to O(T 1/2)in the case of strongly monotone games. Motivated by practical tasks where the game evolves over time, the algorithm is extended to time-varying monotone games. We provide the first non-asymptotic result in converging monotone games and give improved results for equilibrium tracking games.

We study strategic classification in binary decision-making settings where agents can modify their features in order to improve their classification outcomes. Importantly, our work considers the causal structure across different features, acknowledging that effort in one feature may affect other features. The main goal of our work is to understand when and how much agent effort is invested towards desirable features, and how this is influenced by the deployed classifier, the causal structure of the agent's features, their ability to modify them, and the information available to the agent about the classifier and the feature causal graph. We characterize conditions under which agents with full information about the causal structure and the principal's classifier align with the principal's goals of incentivizing effort mostly in "desirable" features, and identify cases where designing such classifiers (from the principal's side) is still tractable despite general non-convexity. Under incomplete information, we show that uncertainty leads agents to prioritize features with high expected impact and low variance, which may often be misaligned with the principal's goals. Finally, using numerical experiments based on a cardiovascular disease risk study, we illustrate how to incentivize desirable modifications even under uncertainty.

The rapid growth of data-driven technologies and the emergence of various datasharing paradigms have underscored the need for efficient and stable data exchange protocols. In any such exchange, agents must carefully balance the benefit of acquiring valuable data against the cost of sharing their own. Ensuring stability in these exchanges is essential to prevent agents--or groups of agents--from departing and conducting local (and potentially more favorable) exchanges among themselves. To address this, we study a model where n agents participate in a data exchange. Each agent has an associated payoff for the data acquired from other agents and a cost incurred during sharing its own data.

Optimal Transport has become recently a powerful method for domain adaptation by aligning source and target distributions. We study a supervised domain adaptation problem where source and target domains are related by a rotation or a translation or a homothety in $\mathbb{R}^2$. We prove that the optimal transport map recovers the underlying map when using a $p-$norm cost with $p \geq 2$. Based on this insight, we develop a method combining $K-$means and optimal transport to estimate the underlying map, enabling adaptation of linear regression models when target data is scarce. Simulations demonstrate improved performance over baseline methods. Rather than relying on highly expressive deep learning architectures, we focus on classical machine learning models to emphasize interpretability and theoretical insight. This perspective allows us to explicitly characterize the role of optimal transport in recovering geometric transformations such as rotations, translations, and homotheties. Our contributions include a theoretical result linking optimal transport and rotations, translations and homothecies in $\mathbb{R}^2$, and a practical method for adaptation in linear regression offering both conceptual clarity and applied value in domain adaptation tasks in this space.

Learning representations for solutions of constrained optimization problems (COPs) with unknown cost functions is challenging, as models like (Variational) Autoencoders struggle to enforce constraints when decoding structured outputs. We propose an Inverse Optimization Latent Variable Model (IO-LVM) that learns a latent space of COP cost functions from observed solutions and reconstructs feasible outputs by solving a COP with a solver in the loop. Our approach leverages estimated gradients of a Fenchel-Young loss through a non-differentiable deterministic solver to shape the latent space. Unlike standard Inverse Optimization or Inverse Reinforcement Learning methods, which typically recover a single or context-specific cost function, IO-LVM captures a distribution over cost functions, enabling the identification of diverse solution behaviors arising from different agents or conditions not available during the training process. We validate our method on real-world datasets of ship and taxi routes, as well as paths in synthetic graphs, demonstrating its ability to reconstruct paths and cycles, predict their distributions, and yield interpretable latent representations.

Contextual MDPs are powerful tools with wide applicability in areas from biostatistics to machine learning. However, specializing them to offline datasets has been challenging due to a lack of robust, theoretically backed methods. Our work tackles this problem by introducing a new approach towards adaptive estimation and cost optimization of contextual MDPs. This estimator, to the best of our knowledge, is the first of its kind, and is endowed with strong optimality guarantees. We achieve this by overcoming the key technical challenges evolving from the endogenous properties of contextual MDPs; such as non-stationarity, or model irregularity. Our guarantees are established under complete generality by utilizing the relatively recent and powerful statistical technique of $T$-estimation (Baraud, 2011). We first provide a procedure for selecting an estimator given a sample from a contextual MDP and use it to derive oracle risk bounds under two distinct, but nevertheless meaningful, loss functions. We then consider the problem of determining the optimal control with the aid of the aforementioned density estimate and provide finite sample guarantees for the cost function.

We study the worst-case adaptive optimization problem with budget constraint that is useful for modeling various practical applications in artificial intelligence and machine learning. We investigate the near-optimality of greedy algorithms for this problem with both modular and non-modular cost functions. In both cases, we prove that two simple greedy algorithms are not near-optimal but the best between them is near-optimal if the utility function satisfies pointwise submodularity and pointwise cost-sensitive submodularity respectively. This implies a combined algorithm that is near-optimal with respect to the optimal algorithm that uses half of the budget. We discuss applications of our theoretical results and also report experiments comparing the greedy algorithms on the active learning problem.

Anomaly detection goal is to detect unexpected behaviours in the data. Because anomaly detection is usually an unsupervised task, traditional anomaly detectors learn a decision boundary by employing heuristics based on intuitions, which are hard to verify in practice. This introduces some uncertainty, especially close to the decision boundary, which may reduce the user trust in the detector's predictions. A way to combat this is by allowing the detector to reject examples with high uncertainty (Learning to Reject). This requires employing a confidence metric that captures the distance to the decision boundary and setting a rejection threshold to reject low-confidence predictions. However, selecting a proper metric and setting the rejection threshold without labels are challenging tasks.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient approach to optimizing costly-toevaluate black-box functions. Most BO methods ignore how evaluation costs may vary over the optimization domain. However, these costs can be highly heterogeneous and are often unknown in advance. This occurs in many practical settings, such as hyperparameter tuning of machine learning algorithms or physics-based simulation optimization. Moreover, those few existing methods that acknowledge cost heterogeneity do not naturally accommodate a budget constraint on the total evaluation cost.